Predict Radar
Whales and coordinated patterns on prediction markets
Whales and coordinated patterns on prediction markets
Prediction markets are venues where people trade on the outcomes of events; the price of Yes is the market's probability. This section follows three venues, Polymarket, PredictFun and Opinion, and collects what is hard to see by hand. Large trades: who entered which market and for how much, with the wallet's age and the live PnL of its open positions. Gaps: the same outcome is priced differently on different venues; we show the YES/NO price difference net of both venues' fees. Patterns: several wallets bet on one outcome in sync, sometimes with a shared funding source; the detector shows who and when, and whether such coordination paid off before. Leaderboard: each venue has its own scale of success, realised PnL on Polymarket, reward points on PredictFun, observed volume on Opinion, so we do not mix the rankings. The data updates in real time.